Oil longs got some relief the previous week due to the new OPEC deal for production cuts. Our macro-models & our ML based price action models for WTI (now at 59.07USD) suggest short positions with targets 55USD , even 50USD for the next 3 months with a probability of close to 70%. Excluding geopolitical events (Iran etc) there is an obvious asymmetric trade there favoring the shorts, but the high Kurtosis of the WTI returns must be taken into account.
