Long term trend against Virus trade
Things have been very ugly in the markets recently, but some long term opportunities are there.
Electric cars & not only will boost the use of copper the next years and increase the value of copper in the long run. The bigger copper miner worldwide is Freeport McMoRan(FCX) and can be a main beneficiary of this trend. With a depressed price of 9.43 recently due to the Corona Virus epidemic may offer a unique entry point for long term investors .
Our quantamental model for commodities & related stocks gives us a flag for a possible long term play.
Instead of buying the stock at 9.43, we could construct a synthetic long call position as follows . We buy the 2021 Jan call with strike price of 10USD for 1.75 USD debit and we sell the 2021 Jan put with strike price of 8USD for 1.3 USD credit. The total debit for 1 contract (100 shares) is around 45 USD or 0.45USD per share. There are 314 days until expiration and we can expect the following outcomes(see the P&L diagram below) :
a) if the price goes below 8 USD , we will have bought the shares in a much better price(8.45 USD) than today’s price (09.41 USD)
b) If goes in the meantime above 10.45 USD, we are positive and if it goes e.g. at 13 USD it gives a 500% performance. FCX was at 13.12 40 days ago.
c) if stays in between 8-10 we ‘ll be -0.45 USD per share negative which is the debit we paid for the position.
And one last thing , the QE & the fiscal measures which will follow after the Corona Virus epidemics passes, will lift mainly commodities like copper.