“A long term bet on the weak dollar & shale oil production decline.”


chart, histogram

“….Although short term USD may exhibit some strength, we definitely expect the decline of the USD to continue on a mid to long term basis. There are many reasons supporting this scenario, the big US debt, the yield curve manipulation by FED, the fiscal expansion, the alternatives to USD gaining strength, etc. Adding to that the declining shale oil production in the US resulting in more oil imports and one of the secular trends we see is the continuous downtrend of USDCAD if we assume no special surprises from the Canadian side. Based on that we may see the USDCAD coming to the levels of 1.10 and even to parity in the next years. ….”

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