The current week is moving to its end and the uncertainty remains in the markets. There was a crisis de-escalation earlier but there are serious doubts if the Russian forces really moved away from the Ukrainian borders. According to Bloomberg, there will be conversations between the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the Group of Seven counterparts next Thursday. Russia insists that it has no plans to attack but at the same time, Russia announces nuclear exercises, bringing new concerns to the West.

The US dollar remains slightly bearish this week, although during the last 1-2 days is applying a recovery attempt. The Fed Minutes, released on Wednesday, disappointed most of the investors who expected a super hawkish profile but instead of that, the Fed still believes that the inflation will calm down shortly and there are doubts about the 0.50% possible interest rates hiking next month. The US retail sales in January had a very good performance (3.8% vs 2% expected) but the initial jobless claims of the last week were announced a bit above expectations. The bond yields have dropped significantly and the US 10-year bond yield is currently at 1.93%, having started the week above 2%.

EURUSD (current price 1.1355) is very close to the last week’s closing price and this is because it had three different trends throughout the week: bearish on Monday, bullish on Tuesday & Wednesday, and bearish on Thursday & today. Both the USD and the EUR depend on the Russian/Ukrainian crisis lately and this crisis is changing the investing risk mood in general. The eurozone & Germany did not have a strong economic calendar during the last few days and the pair’s uptrend needs a solid breakout above 1.15 to prevail. On the contrary, a possible pullback below 1.1280 will give more credits to the bearish scenario.

GBPUSD (current price 1.3604) most likely will have a 3rd in a row bullish week. The recent interest rates hike from the Bank of England is still boosting the sterling, in combination with the weak USD of the last few days. The high rate of inflation (5.5% in January) in the UK creates extra hopes for more hikes in 2022 and the retail sales that rose by 9.1% in January reflect a good shape of the economy. The milestone for the uptrend continuation is the price area of 1.3750 and above these levels, we may the 1.40 coming closer.

USDJPY (current price 115.08) is trying to retain the price of 115 as it has performed a bearish movement this week, mostly on Thursday when the bond yields fell sharply. Some investors moved to the safe-haven asset JPY when the Ukrainian crisis worsened but earlier today, the Japanese inflation was released, carrying a surprise. The inflation rate was in January at 0.5%, lower than the markets’ expectations of 0.6% and much lower than the 0.8% of the previous month. That gives extra room to the Bank of Japan to keep its loose monetary policy and under this anticipation, the JPY should weaken. If the pair manages to stay above 115 then the target of many traders remains the important resistance at the 116.35 price area.