9/2/2023
Below are yesterday’s ATRs (a market volatility measure), compared to their 20-day averages.
Some confusion & lack of direction in FX markets as FED officials send contradictory signals.
Besides the “tough” & hawkish rhetoric by CBs, there is an obvious will to somehow support markets.
Good for the markets but at the same time, we believe inflation at not-so-lower levels will be here for some years.
Having the Chinese consumer get back into spending mode this year will inject inflation pressures into the system & the inflation vol will remain high for this year.
It will not be easy for the FED & other central banks not to keep rates at a much higher than usual level, for the year to come.
EURUSD ATR = 51.2, EURUSD ATR MA = 88.40000000000001, Difference = -42.05%
GBPUSD ATR = 78.3, GBPUSD ATR MA = 114, Difference = -31.33%
USDJPY ATR = 94.3, USDJPY ATR MA = 157.4, Difference = -40.07%
AUDUSD ATR = 77.2, AUDUSD ATR MA = 86.3, Difference = -10.56%
EURGBP ATR = 37, EURGBP ATR MA = 56.7, Difference = -34.79%
EURJPY ATR = 73.90000000000001, EURJPY ATR MA = 142.3, Difference = -48.05%
USDCAD ATR = 90.2, USDCAD ATR MA = 95.8, Difference = -5.88%
USDCHF ATR = 45.4, USDCHF ATR MA = 87.90000000000001, Difference = -48.37%
WTI ATR = 1.49, WTI ATR MA = 2.64, Difference = -43.55%
COPPER ATR = 0.1005, COPPER ATR MA = 0.08971, Difference = 12.02%
GOLD ATR = 17.45, GOLD ATR MA = 27.86, Difference = -37.37%
FT100 ATR = 63.75, FT100 ATR MA = 68.38, Difference = -6.76%
DAX30 ATR = 190, DAX30 ATR MA = 210.91, Difference = -9.91%
NAS100 ATR = 295.12, NAS100 ATR MA = 311.17, Difference = -5.16%
USDINDEX ATR = 0.975, USDINDEX ATR MA = 0.7975, Difference = 22.26%
S&P ATR = 58, S&P ATR MA = 67.98, Difference = -14.68%
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